Stalking the black swan
Posner, Kenneth A.
Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / [electronic resource] : Kenneth A. Posner. - New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, c2010. - xv, 267 p. : ill.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
Electronic reproduction.
Palo Alto, Calif. :
ebrary,
2013.
Available via World Wide Web.
Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries.
GBA9A1648 bnb
Uk
Investment analysis.
Investments--Forecasting.
Business cycles.
Recessions.
Electronic books.
HG4529 / .P67 2010eb
332.63/2042
Stalking the black swan research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / [electronic resource] : Kenneth A. Posner. - New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, c2010. - xv, 267 p. : ill.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
Electronic reproduction.
Palo Alto, Calif. :
ebrary,
2013.
Available via World Wide Web.
Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries.
GBA9A1648 bnb
Uk
Investment analysis.
Investments--Forecasting.
Business cycles.
Recessions.
Electronic books.
HG4529 / .P67 2010eb
332.63/2042