TY  - BOOK
AU  - Posner,Kenneth A.
ED  - ebrary, Inc.
TI  - Stalking the black swan: research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility 
AV  - HG4529 .P67 2010eb
U1  - 332.63/2042 22
PY  - 2010///
CY  - New York
PB  - Columbia Business School Publishing
KW  - Investment analysis
KW  - Investments
KW  - Forecasting
KW  - Business cycles
KW  - Recessions
KW  - Electronic books
KW  - local
N1  - Includes bibliographical references and index; Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment; Electronic reproduction; Palo Alto, Calif.; ebrary; 2013; Available via World Wide Web; Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries
UR  - http://site.ebrary.com/lib/daystar/Doc?id=10419632
ER  -