Stalking the black swan [electronic resource] : research and decision making in a world of extreme volatility / Kenneth A. Posner.

By: Contributor(s): Material type: TextTextPublication details: New York : Columbia Business School Publishing, c2010.Description: xv, 267 p. : illSubject(s): Genre/Form: DDC classification:
  • 332.63/2042 22
LOC classification:
  • HG4529 .P67 2010eb
Online resources:
Contents:
Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.
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Includes bibliographical references and index.

Forecasting in extreme environments -- Thinking in probabilities -- The balance between overconfidence and underconfidence, and the special risk of complex modeling -- Fighting information overload with strategy -- Making decisions in real time: how to react to new information without falling victim to cognitive dissonance -- Mitigating information asymmetry -- Mapping from simple ideas to complex analysis -- The power and pitfalls of Monte Carlo modeling -- Judgment.

Electronic reproduction. Palo Alto, Calif. : ebrary, 2013. Available via World Wide Web. Access may be limited to ebrary affiliated libraries.

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